Peak Oil and the Decline of America [Archive]

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-Z-

12-21-2009, 14:05

Peak oil has been reached, and every day that we continue to depend on oil for all our production needs is another day we dig ourselves and our offspring into a hole.

Unless something extremely innovative is devised to save modern civilization from demise, INFINITE growth will Collide with FINITE energy and our way of life will collapse.

I am not sure if this will happen in my lifetime, but I feel it will, Once people understand the situation we are in, things will progress quickly. Life will become much more localized, a majority of city dwellers will perish due to food shortages, lack of fresh water and energy, and the looting and riots that these situations will cause.

Z

-Z-

01-04-2010, 23:15

And Everyone chooses Ignorance, or claims conspiracy theory, while disregarding actual facts.

Z

Divine Intervention

01-04-2010, 23:54

you havent provided any (backed up) facts or research, rather your interpretation of whats going to happen :)

-Z-

01-05-2010, 02:16

Umm... ok Anton...

For you and for those of you who pay no attention to what has been happening, and do not make any effort to look into such important issues until they are shoved in your face:

What is Peak oil?

"The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8f/Hubbert_peak_oil_plot.svg

Investors speak
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/12/26/8364646/

Geologists
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102302_campbell.html

Physicists Speak
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/111704_end_oil.shtml

Bankers speak
http://www.texasmonthly.com/preview/2008-02-01/feature2

2005 was Peak Oil
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html

Worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production
http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/21/commentary/column_hays/hays/

WARS for OIL
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/1888/

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/PeakGraph.jpg

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/23/AR2005062301896.html

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency

http://www.peakoil.net/

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/graph_201_10_4_2006.jpg

Graph: The Energy Curve of History
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/EnergyCurveHistory2.jpg

All forms of modern technology are actually petroleum products!

"Petrochemicals are key components to much more than just the gas in your car. As of the year 2002, approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US. Source The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step of modern food production is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered:

Pesticides and agro-chemicals are made from oil;

Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas, which is also peaking in the near future. Source

Most farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed and powered using oil-derived fuels.

Food storage systems such as refrigerators are manufactured in oil-powered plants, distributed using oil-powered transportation networks and usually run on electricity, which most often comes from natural gas or coal. Like oil and natural gas, coal too is peaking in the near future. Source

In the US, the average piece of food is transported almost 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate. Source In Canada, the average piece of food is transported 5,000 miles from where it is produced to where it is consumed. Source"

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

-Z-

01-06-2010, 12:38

you havent provided any (backed up) facts or research, rather your interpretation of whats going to happen :)
aaaaaand everyone is still not caring.

Z

Divine Intervention

01-06-2010, 13:42

-Z-

01-07-2010, 13:50

its not a topic that interests me massively ill admit (plus i have a massive essay to do on american healthcare underinsurance and rising premiums). im just trying to get you into the habit of providing research/facts when you make these kind of threads - back up for your claims/opinions etc etc :)

well I appreciate that!

hopefully I have given enough sources there (a wide variety) to appease most people.

At least Anton makes a post about it! lol, no one else says anything, lol.

I care about it because it concerns the not so distant future of the human race.

Maybe it will not effect me in a devastating way (maybe It will), but my younger relatives will def. have their ways changed.

People will look back on this age and think that all humans now were incredibly stupid. and collectively we have been stupid.

We focus on profits and ventures of the next 5 years. while thoese very ventures will contribute to ensuring that future generations will not have the same opportunities as we have now.

Z

Mahdi

01-07-2010, 14:10

Piker

01-07-2010, 14:44

-Z-

01-07-2010, 15:10

There are plenty of oil fields all over the world, ie the huge one in Utah/rockies that is larger than the entire middle eastern field. Russia has oil shale that eclipses any known source of oil in total volume. The US and Russia are waiting for the Saudi's et. al. to run out of oil before they start building their infrastructure to rule the oil world for the next two hundred years...

Yes they are just waiting. because thats what people do, they wait 200 years for power.
????????

There is no arguing that there is PLENTY of oil left.

but when U need to burn 99.9% of a barrel of oil in order to get 1 barrel of oil out of the ground then it becomes irrelevant.

The large fields that remain are under floating ice caps, thousands of feet of rock, or otherwise inaccessible.

America and Russia are not WAITING to gain power.

lol

Z

-Z-

01-07-2010, 15:12

I'm safe roughly 75% of the food I eat is either grown or killed, without using pesticides. Tractors are used, but we also have the horses and the horse drawn plows for when the tractors break and having grown up in a very rural area aka bum **** egypt. I know how to survive on twigs and berries if need be. If push comes to shove, I hear humans taste like beef

Indeed. I'm not saying that we will be extinct, just that our power will be greatly diminished and that a large % of the population will eventually die.

It is difficult to feed a city of 10M people with some plows and horses.

Z

-Z-

02-05-2010, 19:00

I just had a great idea...

We should all be ignorant! Lets ignore the possibility that our children and grandchildren are bound to a life of constant suffering and early death!

... wait... Apparently we are already doing that :-(

so much for original thinking.

Z

Max Logan

02-07-2010, 09:13

-Z-

02-12-2010, 17:31

you`re ignorant...

Oil is so important because people want it to be. Why are there little interest in alternative fuel and energy? Because large companies make billions with Oil.

When there is no Oil, people will find something else. Than again and again.
Oil importance is overrated by the common theorists as Z

Ignorance is blessing, my friend.

There is no substitute for fossil fuels, nothing can approach every 50% of the energy output we get from then while maintaining the same energy input to obtain said output.

Nothing approaches fossil fuels in terms of their convenience and reliability.

All of the infrastructure, machines and societies that we have built over the past 150 years rely on an abundance of fossil fuels for upkeep.

Some people like to play stupid and pretend that things like nuclear energy, wind turbines or solar energy can replace fossil fuels, but none of these or any other alternative sources come close to replacing the huge amount of energy output that the civilized world uses.

Companies do make billions off of oil because it is easily accessible for the time, (this is changing). NOTHING ELSE EXISTS that is as easy to make money from as oil.

This is because of the energy it provides in relation to the energy it takes to obtain and purify it.

Plenty of other energy sources exist, but if the civilized world was relying on them and Oil was not in abundance, energy costs would be about 10 or 20 times what they are now.

What is this magical "something else" that you speak of Max?

Im sure some energy companies would be interested to know, because so far in comparison to Oil everything else fails.

Nuclear, wind, water, steam, solar, bio, and many more are viable alternatives, but none can produce like Oil.

Please enlighten me Max.

Z

Piker

02-13-2010, 03:35

Ethanol is a reliable, mostly efficient resource. It comes from a multitude of plants, ie anything that has starch or sugar. This means it can be grown anywhere where there is corn, wheat, barley, rice, sugar cane, beets, fruit, etc. Why, you can even run cars on vegetable oil, and you can make grease from it too. It will just take a little modifying of machinery to use these substances and all will be sound in the world :P

If you want to argue against the Ethanol thing, take a look at BRASIL! They've been doing it for 40 years now and it is successful. Costs half the price to fill the gas tank and gets around 90% of the mileage. It's all a matter of getting the infrastructure in place.

Max Logan

02-13-2010, 12:42

There was a client of my company, the guy worked by himself and built a car that goes purely on water. Of coarse he can`t get a patent for it, because that is registered to a company, that is owned by one the American oil giants. And he can`t even build another one for his relatives, or else he`ll get jailed.

There are hundreds of such patents all around the world, but mayor companies pay millions to buy them before anyone else...why? cuz spending a few millions to purchase a possible treat to the industry is far cheaper than restructuring.

4th generation nuclear powerplants that are powered by the radioactive waste of 3rd generation stations. There about 14 been built around the globe. WHy not more? cuz they cost. a lot. for now, it`s much cheaper to burn coal and gas, and drive on oil.

there`s no magic, it`s all out there. and USA won`t decline, not even close. It`s industrial base can very easily be adjusted to whatever energy mean necessary. Once oil is over, they will. But why lose a good profit now? If you`de done market research and actually worked in it, you`d realize, no ones gonna give up a market space, as long as it makes great deal of profit.

Oil makes billions right now, if would be idiocy to start mass developing alternative means of energy right now. Hence, no one will, until there`s not a single barrel of oil left

-Z-

02-13-2010, 22:22

Max Logan

02-14-2010, 13:33

Alternative energy sources can not compete with oil in terms of energy output for input.

Besides that fact that there is no energy source that can replace oil, America will continue to decline due to its national debt, and other financial situations.

Z

Ignorance is blessing. In the last few years, significance of renewable energy has increased greatly, both in electrical energy production (where oil has little meaning) and in transportation. Keeping up the tempo, doing more research and industrial adjustments, soon Oil will drop in terms of importance.

It`s a fact that soon, Oil will obsolete, anyway. Future power necessities will be much to high for oil to provide, as oil simply lacks in terms of practical use. It`s relatively heavy and powerless compared to nuclear or electrical energy.

And the US are far more adapted to those technologies, so a decline is really very doubtful. Rather it`s possible that USA will soon be leading in renewable energy industry.

On top of that in global economic recession, renewable energy fared much better than Oil, mostly thanks to new politics of many countries, including US and EU.

So if you hope for Oil to bring down US... tough luck!

P.S. Check your facts!

Xavior

02-14-2010, 23:43

Max Logan

02-15-2010, 04:59

The problem with ethanol is they haven't found a suitable cataylst for the reaction to make it worthwhile to use as an energy source. Which is why they have to mix it with normal gasoline right now. Not to mention making car fuel from food isn't the most popular idea :p

we make fuel out of canola. but yeah, it doesn`t burn on it`s own yet. but I guess it`s a matter of time. Latvia and Norway are actually using more than 15% of its energy production from renewable energy, so I`m very optimistic :p

-Z-

02-22-2010, 15:57

As I said before, are many different, reliable, renewable, dependable, easily accessible, great, wonderful, useful, nice, good, fruitful energy sources other than fossil fuels.

No one is denying that except perhaps the unheard invisible debater in Maxis head.

What is clear and evident to anyone who looks past the fact that there are plenty of other ways to produce energy is that None of these other ways are nearly as efficient as Fossil Fuels.

Energy input to energy output for fossil fuels has been a catalyst for human development and the maintenance of industrial society for many decades now.

As Oil production around the globe becomes more costly due to the decreasing amounts of easily accessible Oil deposits, its price will steadily increase, resulting in a huge decline in development and maintenance of the infrastructure we have already developed.

In coming decades once the energy required to obtain Oil approaches and then exceeds the energy obtained from its retrieval, it will become a luxary energy source, and we will be dependent upon renewable energy, which is much less efficiently obtained.

You can look at the most simple of facts and make your judgments from those like our friend Max, or you can make a rational decision on your opinion based on in depth research on actual energy consumption ratios taking into account retrieval costs, and other such factors.

If you Live In the world of Max Logan, where a rock and a piece of cement are exactly the same thing, then I suppose U have little to worry about, and you can simply claim that anyone who opposes your ideas are ignorant.

Otherwise it might be an Idea to think about how the industrial revolution has changed human society so drastically, and for the sake of the generations to come, spread the word on peak oil.

I am not a conspiracy theorist, I simply feel it is important that we all understand what is happening in our generation, and how it is so drastically different from the past.

Perhaps sometimes I go overboard and talk like it is the end of the world... clearly it is not, but someone has to counter the overly complacent attitude of the masses.

Perhaps some time in the future we will discover an alternative energy source that can stack up to fossil fuels in terms of efficiency, but we have no such technology now available to the world.

If you want to stick your head in the sand like Max, then that is your choice.

I feel that its important to try to leave the world a better place than when u came into it.

Z

Max Logan

02-22-2010, 18:12

Dunno where you conducted your in depth research. No one is denying the importance of Oil. But to claim it has global impact on our future is just populism.
In a few decades Oil will drop importance, simply because of technological advancement. 200 years ago, coal was the mayor power broker. Now It`s Oil. In a few decades it`s gonna be another means of power.

Take ships for example:
Man-Wind-Coal-Oil-Nuclear-...

Cars:
Oil-Gasoline-Hydrogen/Electricity/Gas-...

Electricity:
Coal(fossile burning)
Hydro energy
Wind
Those red water floating things...forgot the English term for them. Tide 'something'

You can always try and single out one mayor player, but you can`t ignore other factors besides those you`ve taken in account - efficiency and power output. You need to look deeper, as you said, make a in-depth research. Try looking at market development, companies future tactics, technology advances, infrastructure.

But you can always buy what mass media tells you and make a global oil conspiracy and blame it all on USA. It`s cool, everyone does it. But it doesn`t make the argument valid. It`s just popular belief.. If you consider yourself a researcher, you should avoid what press sells, and avoid global conspiracy theories

esco

02-23-2010, 00:18

Max is right, couldn't have said it better myself.

One thing I can add is, as you said the price of oil will continue to increase which in turn will make alternative energies more competitive. As that happens market forces will drive funds away from oil related investments/products and into alternative energy. Which will continue forcing prices to increase on oil until one form of energy comes out as the next source of energy for humankind. It might not even be invented yet who knows, the amount of money spent on research and level of organization for all types of crap is unprecedented in any other time. It's just as likely that a pharma company manages to accidently stumble across it. Your just working yourself up for nothing, despite what some people might think humans are very resourceful beings. They work even better on under pressure

-Z-

02-24-2010, 01:42

I haven't heard any major or local news organization talk about Peak Oil frankly...

How can you say everyone is talking about it, and call it popularism when no one is talking about it, and its not a popular subject...

And Esco you say hes "right on" about this?

Yes there are a lot of viable energy sources that can replace Oil now. and yes as Oil increases in price, alternative energy will be uses more and more.

But that does not make any of the alternatives cheaper, or more efficient!

What I am trying to say is that due to the lack of an energy source as efficient as fossil fuels, global production will plummet (we can not just keep producing the same amount of product, maintenance, and structure at 3x the price as we did b4).

We will no longer be able to grow, in fact we will face decades of industrial and societal contraction.

Energy is key. We take it for granted.

"No one is denying the importance of Oil.
But to claim it has global impact on our future is just populism."

... This just seems more than slightly contradictory to me.

Oil is important, yet has no impact on our future.

pass the pipe over here Max, I want some of that!

Z

Max Logan

02-24-2010, 12:49

1. How can you say everyone is talking about it, and call it popularism when no one is talking about it, and its not a popular subject...

2. We will no longer be able to grow, in fact we will face decades of industrial and societal contraction.

3. "No one is denying the importance of Oil.
But to claim it has global impact on our future is just populism."

... This just seems more than slightly contradictory to me.

Oil is important, yet has no impact on our future.
Z

1. populism=/=popularism

2. industry will stop? now that`s interesting. I assume the investments in research and technology are all wasted? I wonder why Norway keeps spending billions on hydro power and improving it. Why USA and Japan bother so much with alternative energy. And what I don`t understand, is how alternative energy market, despite global recession is improving more then other industries. You probably know something mayor industrial countries and companies don`t know

3. Oil IS important. In FUTURE there will be little need for oil, as it`s just not productive enough, assuming we plan to advance space flight and new technology.

Example - the problem nowadays with space flight is that there is no real energy source. Oil takes too much of an amount and it weights far too much. This is the reason long distance space flight is a problem. Oil is just not efficient enough

-Z-

02-24-2010, 18:15

1. populism=/=popularism

2. industry will stop? now that`s interesting. I assume the investments in research and technology are all wasted? I wonder why Norway keeps spending billions on hydro power and improving it. Why USA and Japan bother so much with alternative energy. And what I don`t understand, is how alternative energy market, despite global recession is improving more then other industries. You probably know something mayor industrial countries and companies don`t know

3. Oil IS important. In FUTURE there will be little need for oil, as it`s just not productive enough, assuming we plan to advance space flight and new technology.

Example - the problem nowadays with space flight is that there is no real energy source. Oil takes too much of an amount and it weights far too much. This is the reason long distance space flight is a problem. Oil is just not efficient enough

I did not say anything about industry stopping.

alternative energy is growing in use because fossil fuels are becoming more expensive to obtain and refine. There is a direct correlation between the rise in alternative energy use and the expense of fossil fuels, this is my entire point.

And I agree Fossil fuels are not efficient enough for space travel, but they are the best we have atm.

If your ideas that a new source of energy, more efficient (or at least as efficient) as oil is found in abundance and is easily accessible, then my ideas are all incorrect.

There may be at least a short recession while the entire world switches from Oil to this new source, (many new fixtures and infrastructure will need to be built to accommodate this new energy source, unless it can run on the same machines as Oil)But life could go on as usual.

I feel that no such energy source exists at this time, because I have not heard of any promising sources.

Nuclear fusion would be awesome, but we have no been able to obtain that for any length of time.

My ideas in this thread are based on what we know now, not on unproven theories.

I am not here to bash any unproven theories, it would be great if they were proven... but frankly I have not even heard of any ideas for an efficient source of energy to replace oil, that come to mind except nuclear fusion.

All of the sources such as Geothermal, tidal, wind, solar, hydrogen, ethanol, all pale in comparison to the efficiency of oil.

Z

esco

02-25-2010, 14:43

-Z-

02-25-2010, 17:49

drinkable water is easy to make as long as u have a reliable source of energy, and a reliable source of energy to create the machines to filter it.

Energy is key to everything.

Z

-Z-

02-25-2010, 17:51

Bro like I said your just worrying about nothing, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/25/bloom-box-innovation

I'm not saying thats going to be the solution, but there are dozens of solutions being brewed up.

If you want to worry about something, make it something like the diminishing amount of drinkable water around the world.

The Bloom Box? Seriously?

lmao
getting energy from Oil = BURN IT

getting energy from the BlOOM Box = SOFCs take a hydrocarbon fuel and split at very high temperature (perhaps 600 degrees C) into hydrogen and carbon. The carbon combines with oxygen to make CO2 and the hydrogen reacts with oxygen from air to make water. This later process causes electrons to flow through the ceramic electrolyte and generate a usable current. The crucial problem is making the cell robust, cheap and durable at the high temperatures experienced in the cell.

Ceramic Fuel Cells has numerous partnerships with large utilities around the world interested in taking its products into local markets. Its product turns about 60% of the energy value of natural gas (largely methane in the UK and Europe) into electricity, making it more efficient than all but the best combined cycle power stations. The remaining energy – residual heat – can be used to provide domestic hot water or, in theory could be used to offer space heating or energy conversion to air conditioning in summer. The carbon dioxide savings are substantial, even if grid natural gas is used. Ceramic Fuel Cells, and probably Bloom, can also use synthesis gas ('syngas') from super-heating wood in the absence of air or can even split liquid ethanol made from agricultural wastes. In theory, a SOFC can use low or zero carbon fuel and offer huge greenhouse gas savings on fossil fuel combustion. SOFCs can also be used for grid balancing. When demand is high, the grid operator will have the ability to remotely increase power output of domestic fuel cells and turn it down when the wind turbines on the hilltops are spinning fast. Ceramic Fuel Cells has successfully demonstrated this feature of its technology.

The problems with SOFCs, probably including the Bloom Box, are well known. The fuel cells burn out and have to be replaced by professional engineers. Ceramic Fuel Cells talks of the units needed to be switched every two years though the company hopes this will improve to once every four years. The cost of the units is high. Ceramic Fuel Cells has mentioned a figure of about £2,000 ($3,000+ ) for a machine that can continuously develop 2 kilowatts of electric power but I think this number is highly optimistic and the true figure is likely to be several times this level for some years to come.

In most circumstances, the Ceramic Fuel Cells device will also need to be supplemented by a conventional domestic heating boiler. These machines are so efficient that they do not generate enough heat to keep even a well insulated house warm. The average UK house uses a running average of about 4 kilowatts of heat during the six month heating season while the Ceramic box only provides about 0.5 kilowatts.

The UK government's new feed-in tariffs provide a substantial incentive for householders to install SOFCs in domestic homes. Ceramic Fuel Cells has made great play of the attractiveness of this new subsidy. Provided its power plants work at even approximately the price suggested Ceramic Fuel Cells will find a ready market in the UK. The Bloom Boxes, which appear to be aimed at office buildings and go up to 100 kilowatts, will not benefit from this subsidy.

hmmmm which is easier...

Z

-Z-

02-25-2010, 17:54

lol.

Humanities Source of vitality is dwindling, with no current clear direction to replace it.

But don't worry, no big deal.

lmao

Z