Nothing on Egypt?

[BladeEWG]

I'm very surprised at you guys.
This is HUGE!!!!
Reports of similar demonstrations in Iran (very surprising) and Libya (very gutsy) make this a "must watch" season.
Maybe the bookie can set a line on which government drops next ;)

[Soviet Russia]

Egypt is the summary of the Arabic world. Whatever happens in Egypt, will somehow happen in the rest of the Arabic states.

[BladeEWG]

http://www.businessinsider.com/mubarak-coma-2011-2

and now hes in a coma in Germany according to the USA news.?
Incredible!
Any other time and we'd be pointing to the CIA

[Zeonic]

Egypt is the summary of the Arabic world. Whatever happens in Egypt, will somehow happen in the rest of the Arabic states.

And Egypt didn't start it all. Began with Tunisia, if I recall correctly. And from there it's basically exploded out.

Algeria is freaking out and attempting to shut things down. Things are shaking in other nations, some of which early on into Egypt's mess decided to end their own "state of emergency" policies to avoid confrontation (I'm not sure if they actually did, though).


What I'm worried about with Egypt, though, is who will be retaking power in the void left. It could easily become another Iran, or it could be a military rule, or it could actually become democratic.

[Soviet Russia]

And Egypt didn't start it all. Began with Tunisia, if I recall correctly. And from there it's basically exploded out.

Algeria is freaking out and attempting to shut things down. Things are shaking in other nations, some of which early on into Egypt's mess decided to end their own "state of emergency" policies to avoid confrontation (I'm not sure if they actually did, though).


What I'm worried about with Egypt, though, is who will be retaking power in the void left. It could easily become another Iran, or it could be a military rule, or it could actually become democratic.

Started with Tunisia, right. However only after Egypt, the protests became larger and effective. Egypt is the centre of the Arabian intellectual and political arena. So, it was possible that the revolts only stay in Tunisia, but after what happened in Egypt, it 'has to' grow and expand.

As for the democracy, it is less likely. You can not have democracy in one day. It needs time and wealth and definitely, it needs a generation change. Their President has gone, but his men, his officers and the whole policy makers are still there. And I doubt, if Egypt has enought trained and skilled democrats who can take their place, for now.

[Top12Gun]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/13/egypts-military-rulers-dissolve-parliament-suspend-constitution-protests/

I believe that would be the new generation you spoke of. ;)

However, you're right: The old regime's ppl are still in place, and until that changes, true democracy isn't likely. Like Zeonic, I think the issue, now that Mubarak is is gone, is this: Who's in charge?? My three biggest worries are that A) the Muslim Brotherhood takes over. This is an extremist group that states the following as their mission: "Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. Qur'an is our law. Jihad is our way. Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope." This is the group that stands in a position to take over Egypt. They've been one of the biggest sponsors of Sunni terrorism across the globe. They're also the only people who actually stand ready to act in Egypt. Other than wanting Mubarak gone, there wasn't really any common goal - and therefore, no unity - for the Egyptian ppl. Now that Mubarak is gone, nobody is really sure what they want - nobody except the Muslim Brotherhood. They have a golden opportunity to take control of Egypt before anyone else. It could truly become a terror state. B) Iran-like Ayatollah theocracy is implemented. Egypt is also in a position to be taken over by the clerics, who -although not as well organized or prepare as the MB - are extremely influential. It's like how deep in the Bible belt, as goes the pastor, so goes the church (and usually the town.) It's the same principle here. The clerics, imams, and Ayatollahs are very influential, and they hold the most power over the common Arab. The ppl believe almost everything they're told by their village mosque, and therefore, the same thing that happened in Iran could happen in Egypt: An authoritarian theocracy under the control of the islamic religious leaders. C) Egypt's relationship with Israel will be affected. Depending on Egypt's leadership, things could quickly spin out of control, or they could stabilize eventually. Right now, Israel is watching nervously. Mubarak was a tin-pot dictator, but he was an ok ally to the US & Israel, and he opposed terrorism relatively effectively. Israel had a peace agreement with the Mubarak regime, and if that's broken, there will be severe repercussions, such as Israeli build-up on the border, and trade cessations. Eventually this could defuse or escalate. Israeli military doctrine requires using superior force, whenever possible. If Egypt is taken over by the MB or the imams/clerics/ayatollahs, I am of the opinion that Israel will move preemptively against it. This could escalate to the point of Iran being involved, especially if it's the Ayatollahs. If Israel does move preemptively, I think Iran will move against Israel, and the thought of a war should terrify us all; Obama has made it clear that he doesn't support Israel, and if Israel feels like it's them vs. the world, they'll either back down, or use nukes. They can't back down because once the Arabs realize they have Israel between a rock and a hard place, then they'll (try to) use that as leverage to get Israel out of the Middle East. Let's hope it doesn't reach this point.

@BladeEWG:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/13/AR2011021303596.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/11/sharm-el-sheikh-egypt-mubarak_n_821913.html#s238655&title=Sharm_elSheikh_Tourists
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/11/501364/main20031477.shtml
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/mubarak-arrives-in-sharm-el-sheikh-amid-resignation-calls-al-arabiya-says.html

If quoting news articles as proof is acceptable, then I just proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he's in Sharm el-Sheikh. :D