Oil - is it time to get out?

[Vivid]

Now that we've made a ton of money off of investing in oil futures’ is the free ride almost over?

We have been advised a few years back to put money in oil futures contracts and so far we have made a killing. I'm hearing from some people that we can push the price up even higher over the course of the next couple years. I have also heard that our gravy train will derail soon and when it does the price will drop like a rock thus hindering our investments.

There is alot of talk in US congress regarding pressing regulations on honest investors like ourselves making it more difficult to make a honest buck. My advisor from Stanley Morgan & Company tells me that this will take some time and we can ride oil contracts to $200 a barrel easy and that is when gas approaches $5 per gallon US. When this happens we are suppose to revaluate the political climate and go from there. That the market is cornered and minus government interference rising prices are a lock.

I'm having my doubts about riding until $5 per gallon gas US. The average citizen in the United States is *****ing about the price now at $130 per barrel. This leads to their congress people interfering with the free market in attempt to ruin the free market and leave supple and demand unchecked. They want to screw over small investors like myself by raising the minimum we have to put down by something crazy like 50%. Some members of congress are even going as far as suggesting the absurd an oil commodity trading ban. If that happens oil will probably drop to $90 barrel/$2.50 - $3.00 per gallon US almost overnight. All of us investors will stand to lose alot. Ridiculous, how are we suppose to make money and keep supply and demand in check like that?

I'm told that financial companies are working with the US congress through lobbyist and a deal will be sent up to postpone this speculation witch hunt for atleast a couple more years. I certainly hope so.

Do you guys recommend staying on with the hope for $200+ barrels? I don't want to sound greedy but why settle for 400% when I can make 500%,

I almost wish Iran would get invaded by Israel.. we would make a small fortune overnight through market concerns. Ok, thats evil and I was just joking..

Anyway what do you guys think?

[Foxhound]

all i can say is wow.................................on your views

answer a few things for me

1. where do you live
2. do you have a car?
3. did you pay for that car yourself? along with insurance and gas

[KLL]

The Goldman Sachs prediction si 200 USD/ Barrel.
And I agree, the question ought to be when it is reached.


As for fundamental data, there is absolutely no reason for it to be even above 100 USD, as the Peak Oil theory is a myth, Arab oil reserves are not declining at all, investment in oil drilling technology and exploration is rising and new large oils fields have been found just recently (brazil). Add to that the fact that the increase of oil consumption is declining and its summer -> no heating costs.

If i was you, i'd wait for for the next shart oil price drop (theres been plenty the last couple of months already) and re-invest at the next technical indication for an oil price rise and invest with leveraged options with unlimited duration (as with future roll-over costs might come in expensive) and keep a tight trailing-stop-loss

[Vivid]

all i can say is wow.................................on your views

answer a few things for me

1. where do you live
2. do you have a car?
3. did you pay for that car yourself? along with insurance and gas

I live in the United States.

I owned cars and pay for everything myself.

Some people on these forums know who I am.


What is with your questions?

[KLL]

I live in the United States.

I owned cars and pay for everything myself.

Some people on these forums know who I am.


What is with your questions?

i think he missed the point

[Vivid]

The Goldman Sachs prediction si 200 USD/ Barrel.
And I agree, the question ought to be when it is reached.


As for fundamental data, there is absolutely no reason for it to be even above 100 USD, as the Peak Oil theory is a myth, Arab oil reserves are not declining at all, investment in oil drilling technology and exploration is rising and new large oils fields have been found just recently (brazil). Add to that the fact that the increase of oil consumption is declining and its summer -> no heating costs.

If i was you, i'd wait for for the next shart oil price drop (theres been plenty the last couple of months already) and re-invest at the next technical indication for an oil price rise and invest with leveraged options with unlimited duration (as with future roll-over costs might come in expensive) and keep a tight trailing-stop-loss

Goldman Sachs wants to see $200 barrels about as much as I do. Which is probably why they are saying it, to get people to invest more in oil to push the price higher.

Where do you see this market heading long-term?

Do you think oil futures’ will really collapse one day?

We ahve made alot of money fast and many people seem upset by this.. I have to admit I'm very nervous.

All this talk on the news and in the congress. Nervous indeed

[KLL]

Goldman Sachs wants to see $200 barrels about as much as I do. Which is probably why they are saying it, to get people to invest more in oil to push the price higher.

well they're quite accurate with their prediction and imo employ some of the best analysts in the world. on the other hand, predictions of stock analysts (dunno how the statistics are for commodities analysts) are correct less than 50% of the time.
i read an article where they had some astrologists predict stocks and they were pretty much jsut as accurate

Where do you see this market heading long-term?

I don't like to make long term predictions. predictions are based on current conditions. however these are not the same as i nthe future. for me markets = chaos theory

Do you think oil futures’ will really collapse one day?

It surely is possible, but i wouldn't bet on it. however dops of say 10% within a week are likely to happen imo.

We ahve made alot of money fast and many people seem upset by this.. I have to admit I'm very nervous.

with a trailing stop loss and smart risk management you'Re on the safe side.

All this talk on the news and in the congress. Nervous indeed

can't see how the US congress can influence the oil price significanlty and i nthe long term without violating free market principles. but then again, there is a lot of hypocracy going around there (restrictions on investments by foregners, trade regulations, government aided industrial espionage etc)

The next big thing that might cause a dent in the oil price anytime soon, that is up to the US governemnt, may be the drilling in those protected areas such as alaska and national parks etc... but it'd only be a dent.

[Vivid]

As for fundamental data, there is absolutely no reason for it to be even above 100 USD, as the Peak Oil theory is a myth, Arab oil reserves are not declining at all, investment in oil drilling technology and exploration is rising and new large oils fields have been found just recently (brazil). Add to that the fact that the increase of oil consumption is declining and its summer -> no heating costs.

I love it when people talk about peak oil or China.

If i was you, i'd wait for for the next shart oil price drop (theres been plenty the last couple of months already) and re-invest at the next technical indication for an oil price rise and invest with leveraged options with unlimited duration (as with future roll-over costs might come in expensive) and keep a tight trailing-stop-loss

Some people are saying that this thing will collapse like the dot com boom. That is what I'm afraid of. I'm also told this is unlikely because people need oil and they have to pay for it.

If this thing does fall apart I have a feeling that I'll be one of the last people they tell. Thats why I'm afraid.

[Vivid]

It surely is possible, but i wouldn't bet on it. however dops of say 10% within a week are likely to happen imo.

That would be a fair warning.

with a trailing stop loss and smart risk management you'Re on the safe side.
can't see how the US congress can influence the oil price significanlty and i nthe long term without violating free market principles. but then again, there is a lot of hypocracy going around there (restrictions on investments by foregners, trade regulations, government aided industrial espionage etc)

That is just the thing the US Government has been talking about "trade regulations" and are blaming everything on investors. I'm afraid they might act upon this threat.

The next big thing that might cause a dent in the oil price anytime soon, that is up to the US governemnt, may be the drilling in those protected areas such as alaska and national parks etc... but it'd only be a dent.

Yes, only a dent.

They can drill all the holes they want its not going to scare the market. It takes to long.

[::LD::GrimReapr]

As a consumer I personally think gas prices are outrageous.
I work 4 10 hour days a week and do very little other travel other than picking up my boys from daycare.
It cost me anywhere from 50$ to 60$ a week in gas just to go basically back and forth to work.They need to do something about gas prices if i could walk to work i would but thats not an option.