Massive Economics Thread

[kenshin44]

Dogma i believe you are wrong that the presidency can't do anything to aide the economy, just cause President Bush has done nothing to aide this countries economy doesn't mean others should do the same.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of the greatest Presidents as he was one of the first to actually implement government guidelines/ regulations to aid the rebuilding of the Economy and to implement a safeguard on the economy as well.

It is is with the involvement with government that we can avoid another catastrophic failure.

The Bush Administration has not aided this economy one bit, it is also not responsible for the falling of our economy. I believe the presidency can indeed aide this country and Dogma i honestly don't think the economy can just fix it self.

The Country and Bush Administration have already failed this country by putting down the lives of Americans in a useless war. A war that was based off of lies and then altered to the fitting of helping the Iraqi people, while we have shunned our eyes from the Darfur Situation, North Korean public hatred towards us. I believe the way this country is heading with McCain we will be in the middle east and soon Iran with no actual basis for us to be there. We really have no basis for any international involvement when we have picked and chosen which and what things we want to involve ourselves in.

Being a patriot of this country does not mean lose your sense in mind and blindly follow the leader. Our leader is one that is not supported by his people either.



.
CNN/Opinion Research 9/5-7/08 28 70 2 -42

the 28 percent is his approval and 70 is his disapproval. One thing i don't understand with the numbers is that McCain supports 90 percent of Bush's Policies, but RCP Average 09/05 - 09/15 -- 46.3 45.0 McCain +1.3
Those numbers Show McCain ahead of Obama it is just bewildering to imagine that this country bashes Bush but then they are willing to support another Bush who has failed to help the economy rebound. He has put us in a situation where if we withdraw from Iraq, the country would fall in chaos and be controlled by Insurgents. The reality is that, if we elect McCain Iran would be next and we would further implement our resources in useless campaigns that DON'T NEED OUR INVOLVEMENT. We have made on mistake, and electing a war experienced person like McCain, could only have more negative effects on us.

These Numbers are provided through CNN.

Also for International Polls, I haven't found a country that likes McCain more than Obama, so I guess our figurehead of this country would be widely disliked.

[MAGGIO]

I cant even get into this crap...so here is how it is..

POOOOOOP! happens, and then the finger pointing starts

[KLL]

Ali brought this to my attention today, he is studying Finance in school, I found this quite disturbing, but not surprising.

the 1st of many I suspect:



Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) (pronounced IPA: /ˈliːmən/), founded in 1850, is a crisis hit[1] global financial-services firm. The firm does business in investment banking, equity and fixed-income sales, research and trading, investment management, private equity, and private banking. It is a primary dealer in the U.S. Treasury securities market.

On September 15, 2008, it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection[2] listing bank debt of $613 billion, $155 billion in bond debt and assets worth only $639 billion.[3] The filing is the largest bankruptcy in US history. [4] Until the bankruptcy procedures are completed, the company is still in existence.


Lehman Brothers (LEH) shares tumbled 80% in U.S. pre-open trade. Macquarie Private Wealth associate director Marcus Droga stated: "You've probably seen more in one day of financial history than we've seen since the great crash of 1929. I'm not suggesting the US market will crash tonight, but in terms of landmark events, it's an historic day."


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Stop wasting money in Iraq.

Z

just tell me.. how does that relate to iraq??

Whatever. Dogma, you want proof? Quite hard to give, as no major European bank has had the same problem (yet).

HBOS (worth 14% of what it was a year ago), IKB (saved by governemnt, taken over by private investor), Northern Rock (taken over by governemnt), Dresdner Kleinwort (only survives due to strogn parent company, sold to competitor), WestLB (saved by governemnt, future still undetermined), BayernLB (saved by governemnt), SachsenLB (taken over), Hypo Real Estate (saved by private investor), UBS (saved by private investors), Credit Suisse (saved by private investors). Thats 10 right there. There is probably more with major problems such as SocGen and so on.
Several smaler banks have gone bust already.

A repeat of the 1929 Stock Market crash would be the best thing to happen to the world this century, possibly this millenium.

no not really


now on the black monday and following day... i'm probably losing a lot of moeny right now because of this. yet i still find it all very exciting.
i've been glued to a lvie ticker dedicated to this all day and to the news...
BUt things aare lookig nup. Chances are that AIG wil lbe split up and sold (several german insurers are interested). Maybe even a full takeover. AIG is only woth 10 billion USD right now... Allianz can easily pay that sum for example. Lehman is likely to survive imo if Barcleys will but up some parts of it. Afterall, its fund manager is already worth several times mroe than their parent company.
The winners of this crisi will be the retail banks which are buying up investment banks which normaly are very profitable for little money. But since all banks and financia lvalues.. in fact all stocks are low in value now, there is a lot of buying goign around. One bank after another is beeig ntaken over, be it retail or investment... Allaicne and Leicester, Dresdner, ML, HRE and so on...
private investors are buying bigtime into the market, Buffet for example is on a buyign spree, some funds that do nto rely on loans so much, the Schaffler family is buying the worlds second largest automobile supplyer, the porshe family now totaly dominates volkswagen...
Those are the smart guys.

On another note.. it really pains me to see one company after antoher, that i am about to apply to going bust. It will be really tough to get an intnership i nthis market, with the amount of employers decreasign and the amount of cheap and very qualified labour in that area going around (5000 thousand lehman banekrs alone in London... other investmetn banks wouldn't eve nened to recuit graduates anymore...)

[KLL]

. Administration allowed banks to loan huge amount of money to poor people

that can not be entirely blamed on the adminsitration, rather on greenspan, who outlasted several governemnts.

. Adminstration intervention with Bearn Sterns (govermental support to commercial company)
this gave other commercials the idea, we can do what we want.. Administration will help us when we go bankrupt..

wasn't it technicaly a laon?
people always go around saying that its lie kgiving away tax payers moeny for nothing, while in mosnt cases its actualy a loan.

. Administration stopped (luckily for most americans and rest of the world) to intervent with merill lynch and and Lehman.
Result of this, banks go bankrupt, and 50.000 people are jobless..

there was no intervention required for ML.
however Lehman shold have been saved. I stil lcan't figure why they didn't. If they needed an exampel they could have picked a bank that didn't really matter to the world.

while yes, the banks are resposnible for it with their greed. one msut cosndier, investment bankers are not much different than children in a candy shop. and the FED encouraged them and gave them mreo and mrore money. The kids went wild and bought and ate everythign i nthe shop they were able to and paid anything. At some stage the first one vomited from al lthe candy he ate and it caused a chain reaction. Now nobody wants to go to the candy shop again.

These investment banks need to go down. If you couldn't see this coming last August then you just weren't looking hard enough. The Fed tried to delay it as long as possible, they should have never have bailed out Bear Sterns fail as well, it is called Capatalism.

Long term it will be better. They tried to make money with out having any money. In 10 years no one will care.

it has been a industry olde rthan the automobile industry.. older than electricity... it is bound to survive. Maybe not in its current form. But just about every major ban kthese days has an investment bankign arm. So the indsutry will survive.
The concept of independant investmetn banks will be put to the test. But with candiates like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanly chances are stil lgood. Plus there is thousands of smaller ones which are still doing well.
And maybe these independant investment banks will go and buy retail banks, to prevent the reverse happening (see ML and whatever happened to al lthe bansk that are now part of Citi, CS, UBS, Dresdner, Deutsche, BoA etc).
Deutsche, while nto beeign a case of an investmetn bank takign over a retai lbank.. it is probably a good example of what a bank lie kthat will look like. A strong investment bankign arm with a relatively weak retail arm.. which however does provide a lot of security and a steady stream of income.

[Tnova]

Very well put KLL. I have no qualms with anything you post. I didn't go into details because so many people here don't seem to want to do anything but watch headlines. I can see you have a better grasp and deserve a response.

I really didn't mean all Investment Banks should go down, more so Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. I would maintain that they certainly shouldn't all be saved. GS obviously comes out looking like the cream of the crop. I felt like Lehman Brothers will be sold, like you mentioned with AIG, and Barclay's looks to step up and buy the core banking business.Something must be real bad in their Wealth Management Arm that kept them from getting the extra 7B they needed to stay well capitalized.

The debt rating agencies have really lost my respect. I trust nothing they rate and not sure how they can know what is toxic and what is not. Since everything is packaged, repackaged, and sold.

Debt has a purpose and can do good things. However, i would like to see companies and these debt products not so heavily leveraged. A return to strict underwriting and loans tied to banks and assets would give me warm fuzzy feelings again.

[-Z-]

im trying to figure out who actually runs america...?

I mean... u would think i t would run itself... (the people run it, as opposed to the commodities and resources located within its grasp)

now...

from what dogma says... the elected politicians have no control over the economy.


In Canada, we balance socialism and capitalism well.

IMO we could be a bit more socialist at this point in our countries history, as capitalism has served as a good foundation. (If u are familier with Ann Rynd, you will realize that the entire idea behind capitalism, is a transition into altruism)

Now...

If the elected leaders of the country have no control over the direction of the economy, even on a meta scale, when what/who does?


some private interest...? where is the garunte it is even american?

It is infuriating to see people sit in ignorance and see nothing wrong.

todays world is not the world of 50 or even 20 years ago.

wake up.

realize change happens.

Dogma I'm confident u do not care, but you are quickly proveing yourself to be true contestant for "NW's biggest Fool!"

Z

[Bram Gotink]

HBOS (worth 14% of what it was a year ago), IKB (saved by governemnt, taken over by private investor), Northern Rock (taken over by governemnt), Dresdner Kleinwort (only survives due to strogn parent company, sold to competitor), WestLB (saved by governemnt, future still undetermined), BayernLB (saved by governemnt), SachsenLB (taken over), Hypo Real Estate (saved by private investor), UBS (saved by private investors), Credit Suisse (saved by private investors). Thats 10 right there. There is probably more with major problems such as SocGen and so on.
Several smaler banks have gone bust already.
no not really

I definetly said MAJOR bank in Europe, so the small banks don't count as the impact is fairly small.
I don't see any of these banks with "bankrupt" behind their name... Saved by government/private investors still means that the bank is saved, or you wrote it down incorrectly.


One of the three major Belgian Banks.
They raised their capital in July by selling a bunch of shares at low prices, hence the first drop in value.
Yesterday, the bank lost 11.5% of their value! Today is expected the same, last week was (oh no) the same.
The value of the shares is lower than ever, but still: the bank is nowhere near bankrupt. They still make profit, how strange it may sound (it does, doesn't it?)...
They lost € 500,000,000 b/c of Lehman, if AIG goes bankrupt as well, who know what will happen...

All banks are affected by what happens in the USofA, and if the crisis there continues, we will start having the same problems here soon enough. But not yet!

Paul D'Hoore, Belgium's best analyst in these matters, says that the banks have lost their confidence in each other and that that makes the crisis even worse.

P.S.: the last Belgian bank gone bankrupt was in 1930, the Bank of the Workers (Bank van de Arbeid)
P.P.S.: Paul D'Hoore has succeeded in making 176% profit in one year (2005-2006) by speculating.

[Bram Gotink]

Z your over confidence in your 3rd rate education is just ****ing astounding. Maybe some day when you actually grow up and take your head out of your ***, we can discuss it. But, until then I will continue to look at you as one of those ppl that has to have something to say no matter how ignorant nor uninformed on actual fact it is.

Global moderators should stop the ****ing use of **** and ***... Just like the ****ing rest of you...

It seems we have two contestants so far for the NW fool of the year contest:
Dogma - entered by -Z-
-Z- - entered by Dogma


Back on topic:
A friend of mine just told me that the American Bank has supported AIG with ca.70 billion $ in exchange for an 80% majority of shares...
This action had an immediate reaction in the rest of the world, the values of other bank/insurrance shares have stopped dropping too fast. Now they are even with yesterday, a little lower or even a little higher.
Congratz USA, after causing the problems, you have solved them. That would be a first...

[jasonlfunk]

This is bad news for us all as the economy struggles I think Change is in order and i personally believe the presidency campaighn is one of importance.

I believe change in our economy can come from Barack Obama and none other as he is the only one who has something new to offer to the table.

If you believe the economy is alright and everything is good then McCain is the choice for you, but that goes hand in hand with if you like Bush cause statistics say McCain has agreed with BUSH's Statements at about a rate of 90% .

Vote Obama and Vote for Change

Unless you want Big Brother government to come in and fix everything for you and take care of you - then vote Obama. Otherwise, man up - stop spending money you don't have and make your own choices.

It is impossible to go into bankruptcy when you don't borrow money. The article that Z cited said they were net roughly 150 billion dollars in debt. DUH! Of course there is going to be trouble. Debt = risk. They had a ton of debt and therefore a ton of risk. They made stupid choices and it came back to bite them. Sure- the economy has slowed a little, but if you haven't made stupid choices, it's still good enough to thrive.

Stop borrowing money.

[MAGGIO]

The really funny part is non of us, and I mean non of us are

Finacial experts
Politica experts
Religeon experts

and even the "experts" are only speculating.